Webocreation

Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Really Amazing Refreaction Capture

Real Refraction
Real Refraction


Really Amazing Refreaction Capture, funny animal refraction capture

Really Addicted with the Jokeroo
Really Addicted with the Jokeroo

QUANTIFYING INVESTOR EMOTIONS OR INVESTOR SENTIMENT

We know that greed and fear rule the markets. But did you know that when investors gets too greedy, markets usually fall, and when investors are overcome with fear, markets usually rise. So how can when we monitor investors emotions and take advantage of investors emotional extremes?

Welcome to the world of investor sentiment analysis.

Investor psychology has been analysed for at least 250 years. Charles MacKay wrote his book, 'Extraordinary Popular Delusions And The Madness Of Crowds', in 1841, describing, among other manias, the herd mentality that caused the South Sea Bubble. Since then, many academics have published financial theories based on the concept that individuals act rationally and consider all available information in the decision-making process. But real life frequently demonstrates that the behavior of equity markets is irrational and unpredictable. A field known as "behavioural finance" has evolved over the years attempting to explain how emotions influence investors and their decision-making process. Studying human psychology helps predict the general direction of financial markets as well as many stock market bubbles and crashes. At the height of a period of optimism, greed moves stocks higher, ignoring business fundamentals and therefore creating an overpriced market. At the other extreme, fear moves prices lower, ignoring obvious opportunities and creates an undervalued market.

One important study, ("Aspects of Investor Psychology," The Journal of Portfolio Management, Summer 1998) found that investors are much more distressed by prospective losses than they are made happy by equivalent gains. Some researchers theorize that investors "follow the crowd" and conventional wisdom to avoid any regret in the event their decisions prove to be incorrect.

QUANTIFYING INVESTOR EMOTIONS OR INVESTOR SENTIMENT

When a stock or market index rises, we know that it means investors are more eager to buy than to sell. But how can we accurately gauge just how investors feel?

Most often, investors are somewhere between mildly positive and mildly negative, and only occasionally do they demonstrate the extremes of greed or fear. It is easier to detect emotion when it is close to either irrational exuberance or outright fear. When markets act this way, it becomes "news" and moves from the business section, to being featured at the start of the evening news, and on the front page of the daily newspaper.

The success of charting as a tool, depends on investors repeating their behaviour patterns. There is always a comfort factor in doing the same as others and generally an aversion to behaving differently. Investors display herding instincts in their behaviour and this has become particularly noticeable among institutional investors. In the early stages of a rising trend in a market, positive sentiment can act as a positive driving force as everyone rushes in to join the party. However, there comes a time after the trend has been in place, when this positive sentiment acts as a warning that the trend is nearing its climax. That's when smart investors will start switching to alternative investments.

The most sophisticated and active players in the market use derivative products to effect their transactions. These players tend to display earlier changes in emotion than most investors and normally their emotions run to greater extremes. So, derivative markets are a good source of data on investor sentiment. There are various options available on stocks, ETF's and indexes. By using an option pricing formula, we can extract a measure of how much investors are prepared to pay for the possibility of making a profit, or hedging against a loss. This is known as implied volatility, and it provides a mathematical valuation of investor emotion. Implied volatility tends to be high (the scale is inverted) when the market has had a sharp fall and this is associated with investor fear. At the other extreme, low implied volatility often occurs after a rise in the market and when investors are becoming complacent.

Implied volatility image
http://www.theuptrend.com/ebook/ImpliedvolatilityAA.gif


WHAT IS THE VIX?

VIX is the symbol for the Chicago Board Options Exchange's volatility index for the S&P 500 (SPX). It is a measure of the level of implied volatility and not historical or statistical volatility. A numerical value for the VIX has been published by the CBOE since 1993. The method of calculating VIX was changed in early 2003. Instead of using the S&P 100 (OEX) Index options, it is now calculated using the options on the S&P 500 (SPX). Also note that the VXN is the symbol for the implied volatility index of the NASDAQ 100 index.

The implied volatilities are weighted to give the VIX a value that in effect acts as the implied volatility of an at-the-money SPX option at 22-trading days to expiration. The VIX represents the implied volatility of a hypothetical at-the-money SPX option. If implied volatility is high, the premium on options will be high and vice versa. Generally speaking, rising option premiums reflect rising expectation of future volatility of the underlying stock index, which represents higher implied volatility levels. The higher the VIX, the more panic in the markets and the greater the chance that investors have given up hope, taken their money, and gone home.

Comparing the movement of the VIX with that of the market can quite often provide clues as to the future direction the market might move. The more the VIX increases in value, the more "panic" is an issue in the market place. On the flip side, the more the VIX decreases in value, the more complacency there is amongst investors. The psychological impact measured by a relatively high VIX is a clear indicator that tells traders markets are oversold. A historic example was displayed on July 23rd 2002 when the VIX shot over 55. That big move coincided with a significant low in the Dow Jones Industrial Average that was followed by a 1,034-point, six-day rally. That rally didn't stick and the market again re-tested its July low in October of 2002. But throughout this double bottom in 2002 the VIX accurately identified a major directional shift in the market. At its core, the VIX is a statistical measure of emotions, and emotions are a major factor signalling capitulation in the market.

Sample charts
http://www.theuptrend.com/ebook/Impliedvolatility1.gif
http://www.theuptrend.com/ebook/Impliedvolatility2.gif


INVERSE RELATIONSHIP

Extremely high readings of VIX indicate market bottoms, while low readings indicate market tops.

The VIX actually has an inverse relationship to the stock market. This is one of the first things you'll notice when viewing the VIX on a bar chart. When the VIX goes down the stock market moves higher. When the VIX advances, the stock market is headed lower. Generally speaking, a rising stock market is considered less risky by investors. On the other hand, a declining stock market is considered more risky. Therefore, the higher the perceived risk by investors the higher the implied volatility. This will make options, especially put options, more expensive.

When the phrase "implied volatility" is mentioned, keep in mind that it is not about the size of price swings. Rather it's the implied risk that is associated with taking a position in the stock market. When the stock market declines, the demand for put options usually increases. Increased demand means higher put option prices.

USING VIX to TIME the MARKET

One early study identified a VIX value of 25 as normal, and a value above 35 as high. Between October 1997 and May 2001 the VIX indicator went above 35 eleven times. In this study, the S&P 500 index as represented by SPY ETF. was purchased each time and held until the VIX retreated below 25. There were 9 profitable trades for an average gain of 3.1% and an average holding period of about one month. By using this VIX timing scheme you could capture 80% of total gains in the market, but your money is only at risk one third of the time.

Sample chart
http://www.theuptrend.com/ebook/Impliedvolatility3.gif

Extremes in fear mark great buying opportunities.

Sample chart
http://www.theuptrend.com/ebook/Impliedvolatility4.gif

THE CONTRARIAN VIEW POINT OF THE VIX

An extended and/or extremely low VIX suggests a high degree of complacency and is commonly considered bearish. From the contrarian view point ,many traders are of the opinion that if the VIX becomes low, they'll begin looking for a reason to begin selling stock. On the flip-side of the coin, a very high VIX can indicate a high degree of anxiety which often leads to panic among options traders. This action is often considered bullish by the contrarian, and they'll look for reasons to begin buying stock. High VIX readings usually occur after an extended or sharp market decline with investor sentiment still very bearish. Some contrarians view readings above 35 as bullish. Hence, they'll begin looking for a major market turn to the upside.

The VIX should be used in conjunction with "regular" analysis of price action on price charts. The wise trader will never make a purchase or sale based solely on the price level of the VIX. The wise trader will use the VIX (and its support and resistance levels) in conjunction with the price action of charts of the S&P 500, the Dow, and the NASDAQ.

Using the VIX with charts of these indices will help you get a good grasp of the current market psychology. Since market movements are based entirely on human emotions, it is important for traders to understand psychological indicators. When the VIX is used correctly it helps you stay on the right side of the market and make profitable trades.

SUMMARY
Understanding Investor Sentiment (or Investor Psychology) is by far the most powerful tool an investor can use to understand exactly where the stock market is, and where it is going. But it is often hard to digest, as it is counter intuitive to our human nature.

Here is a recent example that will help illustrate this point.

In September 2005, the TSX was making multi year highs. While the VIX Indexes was down near multi year lows. Standing back and looking at these two pieces of information, you might question the wisdom of adding long-term money to this market at this time.

You might, but human nature would not.

From GARY NORRIS
Canadian Press
Mon Oct 17, 3:58 PM ET

Canadians are shovelling money into mutual funds almost like it's 2001 again, with September purchases of $1.8 billion - up from net redemptions of $545 million a year ago.

The Investment Funds Institute of Canada said Monday that investments in long-term funds - equity, bond and other funds excluding short-term money market funds - topped half a trillion dollars for the first time. "This underlines the fact that investors are making long-term commitments to funds, and not simply parking their investments temporarily in money market funds," commented Tom Hockin, president of the fund industry association.

Sales in the first nine months of the year, net of redemptions and excluding reinvested distributions, totaled $18.4 billion, "the highest net sales figure since the same period in 2001," Hockin observed.

Yes, you read that correctly, Canadian have not been this enthusiastic since the last time the market was peaking.

TSX Sample Chart
http://www.theuptrend.com/ebook/ImpliedvolatilityB.gif

Now we don't have enough data yet, but since Canadian Mutual Fund investors did their "extreme" mutual fund shopping last month, the market has already dropped 800 points.

Now ask yourself, if you were going to put money into this market, was September the best, low risk time to do so in the past 5 years? Were these investors thinking analytically, or did the emotion of greed cloud their judgments?

My guess is that this is what I like to call "Panic Buying", of Canadian Mutual Funds last month, will signal the very top of this market, and be the catalyst for a major sell off.

Only time will tell if I am right.

Optimizing any web page involves both on-page and off-page optimization

Optimizing any web page involves both on-page and off-page optimization. Whereas on-page optimization emphasizes the use of carefully selected keywords to write a web page, off-page optimization is all about building links to the web page from other web pages as well as other websites. The leading search engines' ranking algorithms have placed much importance on links that it is not possible to achieve a high-ranking based solely on competitive keywords.

Links

There are two basic types of links used in websites. One is the navigational link which connects pages within a site. The other one is the hypertext link which offer parenthetical material, footnotes, digression or parallel themes that can serve to provide relevant information in relation to the main content of the page. Both types of links however, can be disruptive or problematic in the overall site design when not used in its proper context.

Links can distract attention especially if a paragraph or text is filled up with invitations to readers to proceed to other pages or sites. This threatens the smooth flow of content as readers jump from one page or site to another. The context of information can entirely be altered as readers find themselves in an unrelated territory without the benefit of any introduction or proper explanation.

The primary purpose of having links is the reinforcement of an author's original message by providing a choice of connected materials. Links should be geared towards pointing to other resources within the site which uses related texts or visuals. A reader should be made clearly aware when he/she leaves one website and enters another through a link.

Good hypertext linking aims to maintain a site's contact with its readers. A simple link will usually work within a single browser window where the original content disappears substituted by the linked page. This can be avoided by adding the TARGET = "main" argument to link tags. Through this, the linked page will appear in a new browser window in front of the original one which allows the reader to access the new material without losing visual contact with the original site. The use of frames is another way to maintain narrative and design context. Frames can be used to split the browser screen between site navigation and the material intended to be brought out.

Website navigational links can be provided through plain text links, JavaScript links, PHP links or graphical links. Plain text links are the easiest to implement and its use is recommended even if other link types are being used as a main navigational structure. All search engines are able to follow them although it can be very difficult to maintain them for websites that have more than 50 pages. Providing careful attention to website design can address problems associated with this. JavaScript navigation is used to build complex drop down menus for large websites. It offers the advantage of an almost effortless change procedure once it is implemented but it requires more knowledge and expertise to implement. However, this type of link is not followed by search engines hence the pages referenced by the said links may not be indexed without some other form of navigation provided.

Linking in Relation to Usability

Usability is the ability to successfully and confidently learn or complete a task with a reasonable amount of comfort provided to the end user. Usability in the eyes of a website designer or application developer is being able to design and build websites that can be understood and easy to use in accomplishing a task. It is essentially about meeting the needs of customers and anticipating their other needs to help them reach their goal through a website that is true to its own goal of providing the right information or at least access to it.

A usable website stands to reap the benefits of conversion and customer satisfaction. A website should be able to tell the reader what it is all about, what product or services are being offered and what procedural steps are being taken that will earn the trust of customers. Most importantly, it should be able to meet the needs of both humans as well as search engines. Both are intent on understanding a web page, knowing how to get to the next relevant page and being able to find that all important link. The information structure of a website should be construed in a way that would enhance the speed and understanding of it.

The priority of SEOs is to get clients' web pages into search engines and directories as well as to have them ranked good enough to be found by end users. Marketing and usability should come hand in hand so that the site owner does not only have prime spots in search engines but also customer conversion as well. The ultimate challenge of any website developer is to be able to ultimately build sites for people and not for search engines only.

A link has two ends – the source anchor and the destination anchor. The term link however, usually refers to the source anchor while the destination anchor is called the link target. The most common link target is a URL (Uniform Resource Locator) used in the World Wide Web which can refer to a document such as a web page, other resource or to a position in a web page which is achieved by means of an HTML element.

Hyperlinks are usually displayed in a web browser by some distinguishing way such as a different color, font or style. The usage of a mouse cursor changing into a hand motif may also indicate a link in a graphical user interface. Links in most graphical web browsers are displayed as underlined blue text when not cached and underlined purple text when cached.

Having the right link in the right place at the right time and page is the dream of any website owner. Most pages have some type of main navigation to access major categories within the site. Another set of links pointing to things like a privacy policy may also be seen. Many sites use secondary navigation on pages within sections of the site. A different section may provide a different set of links in the secondary navigation which can be very helpful to users and search engines. The navigational links are often seen in a content-rich area on a page. It is very common to see links embedded within the text in the content area of web pages which is very advantageous from a search engine optimization point of view. One of the existing dangers of this practice is when these links are missed due to the reader's natural tendency to just scan the pages due to time constraints. Embedded links should be placed within the content in a way that they can easily be seen. Having too many can make it very difficult to read the text on a page. Confine these kinds of links to the most important and outstanding links. The rest of the links can be placed in other critical parts of the page.

Saturday, November 26, 2011

So you want to be a millionaire?

Who doesn't...

I come across so many people that say "I'm going to make a million dollars in network marketing". I have conversations with people telling me how they're going to become millionaires.

That's great I'll help you reach that goal every way I can.

But you know what?

Not everyone is going to make a million dollars in network marketing... and that's ok.

Most people's lives would change with an extra $500 or $1000 a month.

If you're in network marketing the opportunity is here to become a millionaire.

let's talk about that for a second.

To become a millionaire in network marketing is going to take lot of WORK.

Yes, you can do it in the shortest amount of time compared to other business opportunities but you still have to WORK...

But you work smart not hard.

And the cost for start up is minimal.

But it still takes WORK!! no matter how you cut it.

To become a millionaire in network marketing you're going to have to do things differently.

What do I mean? One of my mentors Michael Dlouhy told me this.

"Duffy if you want more, you're going have to become more".

That made a lot of sense to me.

So what if you're not going to make a million dollars a year in network marketing?

Look I'm not saying you're not going to make a million dollars, but let's say it's not in the cards or that's an amount you can't relate to. (Lots of people can't relate to earning that kind of money)

How much do you make now?

I'll go with the average and say $30,000. Everything is ok, sometimes it's a struggle but you get by, but things could be better.

Imagine doubling your income. Can you imagine earning $60,000 per year?

Sure you can.

So if you didn't make a million dollars a year but you're making $60,000 in network marketing would you consider yourself a failure?

NO!!

But let's say your better at this then you thought and you're earning $100,000 to $150,000 per year.

Would you consider yourself a failure?

HELL NO!!

Do you think you could have a pretty good life earning that amount each year?

YOU BET!!!

Man if you're earning that kind of money from network marketing. You're winning trips, vacations, getting deals on conventions or even winning trips to your companies conventions, your winning shopping trips, bonus money, car programs, free product or services.

The things many people have to spend money on such as trips, vacations, products, services and cars. You're could be getting them from your company for a lot less or even free, because of your ranking in your company.

The life you may want may be a lot closer then you think.

Tell me, if you made $100,000 to $150,000 per year in network marketing you'd be a very happy camper, yes?

Tell me you wouldn't, I dare ya.

I believe in you!!

Until Next Time

To Your MLM Success
Duffy Rogan

Maximize Your Sales with the 2 Step Auto Responder

Maximize your marketing and sales with some auto responder Improvements. Try some of these marketing promotional pieces, the tryed and tested 2 step mailing process. Guaranteed to boost you profits.

1. Collect vital customer satisfaction information by publishing a survey to send via auto responder to those who sign up on your site in exchange for a free eBook, software or trial period at your membership site. This type of information will help you understand their needs, likes & dislikes better.

2. Publish free reports to send via your auto responder. The reports should be related to your business or web site & contain info, ads and links to your sites. People love getting freebies.

3. Instead of publishing all of your customer testimonials or endorsements on your website, publish only a few there. And set up an auto responder form that invites visitors to receive a complete list via your. Give them a power-packed list; it's more effective to include all of them.


4. Instead of answering each customer question that is e-mailed to you, publish "Frequently Ask Questions" and make them available via auto responder to those who sign up. To save time and support headaches.


Mix and match. Change your auto responder strategy to change your auto responder results! Also top sales pros confirm that it often takes seven or more communications or sales messages before prospective customers make a purchase. They also confirm that it's generally easier to sell to a referral, because someone they know gave positive testimonial about their products or services.
What would happen if you combined both of these powerful ideas? A nifty and thrifty two-step. Try this two-step tip:

1. Publish a price list of all the products and services that you offer in an insert, direct marketing package and / or .pdf to be made available via auto responder. You could also include order forms, product descriptions, and other sales material. Then send to the people in #1 above with monthly updates, announcements of new sales and products / services, and a request for referrals.

2. Collect leads with your auto responder. Ask for mailing addresses and telephone numbers, too, for additional ways to follow up with each person. When you download the e-mail digest of everyone's e-mail addresses and other information from those who requested additional information from your auto responder, follow up multiple ways. Send postcards. Call. Mail sales letters and other promotional pieces.

So why not improve your closing ratio and reach out even farther at the same time?